The report below was written by Scott Borgioli, WeatherAg Chief Meteorologist on March 25, 2023 (next update approximately May 1, 2023)
La Nina/El Nino: La Nina has dissipated as previously forecast. “Neutral” conditions now exist in key parts of the Equatorial Pacific (“Neutral” meaning neither a La Nina or El Nino exist). High probabilities continue to be the case for El Nino conditions developing during the late summer and continuing through Winter 2023-24. El Nino will likely then start to wane late winter or early Spring 2024 (preliminary). El Nino is currently predicted to be at a “weak” strength (almost all data signals this). Historically, of the 11 “weak” El Nino events since 1950, odds favor at least 80% of normal precipitation for the valley next water year with a much lessor chance of 51-79% (probabilistic, not exact). Regarding temperatures, weak El Nino events generally don’t tilt the pendulum one way or the other October through April.
APRIL TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
- April, probabilistic odds and data favor below normal temperatures continuing. Through around April 10, mean temps as a whole look to be -10 to -5 of normal. April 11-30, mean temps are then predicted to be -7 to -2 of normal.
- April precipitation is predicted to be near to slightly above.
MAY TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
- May, probabilistic odds and data favor near normal temperatures. Except for a small swing towards slightly below normal temps May 1-8, there are no strong signals for the pendulum swinging one way or the other. Thus, mean temperatures as a whole for the month are favored at -3 to +3 of normal.
- May precipitation also looks to be near normal, with no signals towards wet or dry.
JUNE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION
- June, probabilistic odds and data favor near normal temperatures (-2 to +4 of normal mean). Near normal precipitation is favored.
JULY/AUGUST/SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES
- As you would expect, odds strongly favor above normal mean temperatures for this entire period. This is too far out to have specific data to establish a predicted range for the expected above normal mean temperatures.
*Note that this outlook is preliminary. It is a generalized prediction based on the currently observed and anticipated weather patterns, model data, long term predictions, and historical trends. This outlook should not be used as a specific forecast, but rather as a tool of future probabilities based on current data signals and expert opinion.
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