Our July Weather Watch Special Report is sponsored by:
By Scott Borgioli, WeatherAg Chief Meteorologist
Please refer to the previous report written on June 8, 2026. Be cautious of hype and false information. The terms “Super El Niño” and “Very Strong El Niño” are synonymous.
El Niño conditions are present (El Niño has “coupled” with the atmosphere) and continue to strengthen. The current El Niño episode is on track to peak in the Very Strong category – per observed trends and data signals. El Niño conditions are strongly favored to continue into/through Spring 2027. El Niño conditions are contributing to an active tropical Pacific. Just ten days ago, Super Typhoon Bavi affected Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. So far, we’ve had five named tropical systems across the Eastern Pacific; there’s no doubt that many more systems will develop.
Historically, a Very Strong El Niño influences California’s winter precipitation because:
- Other weather phenomena and specific phases of atmospheric oscillations typically interact with El Niño and enhance precipitation effects across parts, or all, of California.
- During a Strong-Very Strong El Nino, we often experience: a storm track that’s more persistently directed into parts of California, see more frequent moisture-laden low-pressure systems that are associated with an Atmospheric River / Pineapple Express which cause excessive precipitation events, and, low-pressure systems that are “wetter” overall due to their ability to “tap into” the abundant moisture that’s in the tropics/subtropics.
- As we’ve seen with some previous events, the jet stream may favor NorCal, CenCal, or SoCal, which could result in a “Precipitation Dipole Pattern,” with precipitation focused on one part of the state (causing above-normal precipitation) while the other part is anomalously dry. Conversely, the entire state could experience above-average rainfall. Since records began in 1950, all four Very Strong El Niño events have resulted in average to above-average rainfall across the valley. However, statewide results are mixed. During one of the four (25%) Very Strong El Niño events, NorCal was anomalously dry and SoCal anomalously wet, but another one of the four events saw the opposite – a wet NorCal, dry SoCal. The remaining two of the four events saw anomalously wet conditions statewide. Note that these four Very Strong events are not enough to form a scientific conclusion.
- At this time, there is no way to predict precipitation anomalies for the 2026-27 water year or whether the jet stream will only favor certain parts of the state. Beginning in mid-September, updated data may provide more insight into what the pattern may hold for the next few months. Therefore, please use caution when using information obtained from sources on the internet, social media, and news media sites. Many sites have just one goal: generating revenue from ads, which can only be accomplished through “clickbait” based on hype and fearmongering (we don’t participate in this).
Historically, the valley doesn’t experience significant Mean Temperature anomalies during Strong or Very Strong El Niño episodes. December-February Mean Temperatures have almost always remained within +/- 3°F of the seasonal average. Note that this does not mean that the Fall/Winter/Spring season won’t experience temperature anomalies, including frost-freeze events. Beginning with the September 2026 update, data signals are expected to provide better insight into temperature probabilities over the next few months.
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