Weather Watch Special Report Regarding El Niño

By Scott Borgioli, WeatherAg Chief Meteorologist

As your experienced Meteorologist, I’m concerned about the recent hype and fearmongering that’s almost everywhere. Misinformation is causing all sorts of problems and unnecessary worry/panic. Let’s put things into perspective and rely only on facts so as to try not to get caught up in the hysteria. Social media and many news outlets compete for “likes” and run ads that generate revenue from clicks and views. NO CLICKS/LIKES HERE, JUST FACTS!

Let’s take a deep breath, put things into perspective, and look at some facts:

1. Earth is over 4.5 billion years old! Reliable weather instrumentation data records only extend back to the late 1880’s. El Niño/La Niña monitoring, via Sea Surface Temperatures, began in 1950. Seventy-five years of data for only five Strong-Very Strong El Niño episodes is simply not enough to form a scientific conclusion.
2. El Niño and La Niña form in a specific part of the Equatorial Pacific and make up the “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO). Think of an “oscillation” as a seesaw going back and forth. El Niño doesn’t come to California – it is the anomalous warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in a key portion of the Equatorial Pacific (La Niña is the exact opposite – anomalous cooling). ENSO has three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral (when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present). El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 2-7 years and can be back-to-back as the same or alternating episodes. When “coupled” with the atmosphere, El Niño has four different strengths: Weak, Moderate, Strong, and Very Strong. La Niña is categorized into three different strengths: Weak, Moderate, and Strong.
3. Outlooks have no skill! This means that it is impossible to predict the exact future weather patterns or conditions (like flipping a coin). Instead, outlooks are a guide to see which way the pendulum leans based on the probabilities from current data. The atmosphere changes second by second!
4. Besides El Niño, other oscillations and/or weather features can enter “active” phases that enhance and affect the West Coast weather patterns. These can interplay with El Niño or La Niña and can cause or enhance precipitation and/or temperature anomalies. On top of that, atmospheric changes and the displacement of warm/cold air may further influence valley temperature/precipitation anomalies.
5. Since records began in 1950, five (5) Strong-Very Strong El Niño episodes have occurred:
   1. Statewide, saw above average winter precipitation for two (40%) out of five episodes (1982-83, 1997-98)
   2. The state had below average winter precipitation for one (20%) out of five episodes (1987-88)
   3. During the remaining two (40%) out of five episodes (1991-92, 2015-16), California experienced a mixed bag: north/south were opposites at above/below average winter precipitation, and the Valley at average to slightly above average winter precipitation.
   4. Total valley winter precipitation varied at 66-201% of average during each of these five El Niño events (some data compliments of Jan Null / Golden Gate Weather Services)
6. Current data is still very preliminary and by no means absolute! There are more than 24 “models.” Just because one, two, three, or four models predict this will be the strongest El Niño on record (since 1950) doesn’t mean it will happen.
7. If El Niño does end up becoming the strongest on record: See #1, 3, 4, 5!

 

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