The World Citrus Organization (WCO) recently released its Southern Hemisphere citrus forecast report, which indicates that total production for 2026 is expected to decline by about 5.9% year over year to approximately 26.4 million metric tons (MT). The estimate is based on preliminary forecasts presented at the organization’s annual meeting covering key producing countries, including Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Chile.
Despite lower production, exports are projected to increase by roughly 4% to 4.74 million MT, reflecting continued strong trade flows even as overall supply tightens. The WCO report highlights mixed performance across citrus categories, with orange production forecast to fall by over 8%, soft citrus remaining relatively stable, lemons showing modest growth, limes declining by nearly 10%, and grapefruit output rising by more than 20%. Ongoing concerns about geopolitical instability are highlighted, particularly the Middle East crisis, which is expected to affect logistics, raise input costs, such as fertilizers, and create broader uncertainty for exporters.
Recent export growth has reportedly been driven more by supply shortages in competing regions, such as the Mediterranean, rather than by stronger global demand, underscoring continued concerns about underlying consumption trends. The WCO report recommends a cautious approach to supply management in key markets such as Europe and the Middle East, where demand conditions remain uncertain and will need to be closely monitored throughout the season.
The report also reflects broader market dynamics highlighted by industry sources, including rising global lemon supply from countries such as Chile, Argentina, and South Africa, increased competition in key markets, and the importance of diversification strategies.
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