The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) projects total citrus exports of 210–215 million 15kg cartons in 2026 (excluding late mandarins), according to a recent CGA media release. The forecast reflects expected growth of approximately 3–5% and signals a potential record season despite global uncertainty.
The industry is facing risks tied to the Middle East conflict, including impacts on demand, shipping, fuel availability, and input costs, but is also investing in market intelligence and logistics coordination to support supply chain stability and adaptive planning.
Estimates point to a balanced, high-quality crop. Lemon exports are forecast to rise 10% to 45.9 million cartons, driven by new plantings and recovery from prior weather damage. Navel oranges are expected to decline 5% from a record 2025 but remain above 2024 levels. Valencia oranges are projected to increase modestly as yields normalize following exceptional conditions last year.
Grapefruit exports are expected to increase significantly, up 16% to 15.7 million cartons, due to favorable growing conditions, though smaller fruit sizes and weather-related harvest delays have been noted. Early mandarin varieties show mixed performance, with Satsumas stable and Nova and Clementine volumes declining slightly.
The CGA emphasized structural constraints to future growth, including limited market access in key destinations (e.g., China, India, the United States), EU phytosanitary requirements viewed as restrictive, and ongoing logistics inefficiencies, particularly in rail, highlighting areas for policy and infrastructure improvements.
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