On December 19, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) published its Citrus Annual Report for Argentina, South Africa and Chile.
ARGENTINA
Oranges:
FAS forecasts that orange acreage will remain steady at 37,000 hectares in MY 2025/26. No significant investments have been made to increase planted area in recent years. Orange production in MY 2025/26 is expected to increase to 680,000 MT, due to mild weather conditions and the absence of major climatic events.
Exports for MY 2025/26 are forecast at 45,000 MT, a slight decrease. In 2024, Argentina’s primary export destination for fresh oranges was Paraguay, accounting for 52% of total shipments, followed by Spain, Brazil, and the Netherlands.
Tangerines/Mandarins:
FAS forecasts that the planted area will remain steady at 27,500 hectares in MY 2025/26. No significant investments have been made to increase planted area in recent years. FAS estimates that mandarin production in MY 2025/26 will amount to 240,000 MT, up from 180,000 MT in MY 2024/25. This is due to an expected recovery from severe frost events that caused crop losses.
Mandarin exports for MY 2025/26 are forecast to slightly increase to 25,000 MT.
Lemons:
In MY 2025/26, the planted area of lemons will remain stable at 54,000 hectares, while the harvested area is likely to increase slightly as producers bring previously abandoned orchards back into production, encouraged by improved market prices and stronger profitability expectations. FAS estimates that lemon production in MY 2025/26 will remain stable at 1.9 million MT, supported by favorable conditions. During MY 2024/25, production rose to 1.91 million MT, as bloom damage from early-season rainfall was less than expected.
Lemon exports in MY 2025/26 are expected to increase to 210,000 MT, with the U.S. and the EU as the primary destinations. In 2024, the US accounted for 63% of Argentina’s total lemon export shipments.
SOUTH AFRICA
Oranges:
FAS forecasts that in MY 2025/26, orange planted area will increase by 2% to 46,000 hectares. Orange planted area in MY 2024/25 is forecasted to have risen to 44,166 hectares. FAS estimates that orange production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 1% to 1.85 million metric tons (MT). In MY 2024/25, orange production is forecasted to have been 1,83 million MT, an 11% increase on the year prior as young trees came to full production and water was available for irrigation.
Orange exports for MY 2025/26 are projected to increase by 4% to 1.45 million MT. FAS estimates orange exports for MY 2024/25 increased by 24% over the previous year due to an earlier season and better fruit sizes. In MY 2024/25, South Africa exported to more than 100 countries worldwide, with the EU remaining the largest export market, accounting for 37% of total orange exports. The U.S. received 4%.
Grapefruit:
FAS forecasts that in MY 2025/26, grapefruit planted area will remain flat at 8,150 hectares as a recent grapefruit promotional campaign likely encouraged growers to retain their current areas under cultivation. However, the harvested area is projected to increase slightly to 7,750 hectares. Forecasts indicate that grapefruit production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 1% to 430,000 MT. This is due to favorable weather and adequate irrigation. A 1% increase was also seen in MY 2024/25, also attributed to weather and irrigation.
Grapefruit exports for MY 2025/26 are expected to increase by 4% to 255,000 MT. This growth is attributed to higher quality, sustained demand, improved port performance, and a promotional campaign in Europe targeting younger consumers. In 2024/25, grapefruit exports increased 13% to 245,000 MT. In MY 2024/25, South Africa’s dominant export market was the EU, followed by China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S.
Tangerines/Mandarins:
FAS forecasts that mandarin planted area in MY 2025/26 will increase by 1% to 27,500 hectares. This reflects a shift away from other citrus types, driven by the higher demand for tangerines and mandarins in export markets. FAS estimates that mandarin production in MY 2025/26 will rise by 2% to 1 million MT, due to normal weather conditions and productivity gains from the use of hail nets. MY 2024/25 production is estimated at 980,000 MT, a 26% increase over the year prior, thanks to young trees entering production and the majority of growing areas reporting favorable fruit sizes.
Tangerine/mandarin exports for MY 2025/26 are projected to increase by 3% to 875,000 MT, driven by investments in quality improvement and strong global demand in leading markets. FAS estimates exports for MY 2024/25 increased by 32% to 853,000 MT, driven by higher production of export-quality fruit. The largest foreign markets for these exports are the EU and the UK, accounting for 44% of total exports, followed by Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S.
Lemons:
Lemon planted area is expected to remain unchanged at 17,500 hectares as producers hold back on further plantings due to oversupply and limited demand for processing. FAS estimates that lemon production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 4% to 840,000 MT, as young trees reach full production, weather conditions are normal, and water is readily available for irrigation. MY 2024/25 production was revised upward to 810,000 MT, an 11% increase from the year prior due to new trees coming into production.
Lemon exports in MY 2025/26 are projected to increase by 6% due to increased supply to export-quality fruit, improved port performance, and sustained demand in major markets. In 2024/25, lemon exports increased by 22%, supported by improved yields of export-grade fruit and larger-sized fruits. South Africa’s largest lemon export market is the EU, accounting for nearly 40% of total exports, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Russia.
CHILE
Oranges:
Orange planted area will remain fairly steady, slightly expanding to 7,300 hectares. The Metropolitana region is expected to remain the largest region, with an area planted share of 39.7%, followed by O’Higgins at 33.4%. FAS estimates that orange production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 2.5% to 205,000 metric tons (MT), driven by higher yields and an expanded planted area.
Orange exports for MY 2025/26 are projected to increase by 2.7% to 115,000 MT. This is due to increased production and strong international demand. In MY 2025/26, Chile’s dominant export market is expected to remain the U.S. In 2024/25, the U.S. represented 94.2% of total exports, receiving 102,644 MT. Nominal exports also went to Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala.
Tangerines/Mandarins:
FAS forecasts that mandarin planted area in MY 2025/26 will increase slightly to 12,900 hectares, with harvested area rising slightly to 12,500 hectares. Production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 3.1% to 270,000 MT, reflecting the expanded planted area and continued high yields in key production regions such as Metropolitana, O’Higgins, and Valparaiso.
Mandarin exports for MY 2025/26 will increase by 2.2% to 235,000 MT, thanks to higher production and strong demand. In 2024/25, exports amounted to 223,000 MT. In MY 2024/25, the U.S. received the majority of Chile’s mandarin export volume, at 196,343 MT, representing 95.8% of exports. Other markets included Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the UK.
Lemons:
Lemon planted area is expected to increase by 4.8% to 10,400 hectares. This is due to the profitability of lemon cultivation as an alternative to water-intensive crops such as avocado. FAS estimates that lemon production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 4.4% to 237,000 MT, due to expansions in planted area.
Lemon exports are expected to grow by 3.8% to 135,000 MT, thanks to continued production expansion and strong demand in international markets. In MY 2023/24, Chile’s largest lemon export market was the U.S., accounting for 55% of export volume, followed by Japan, Argentina, and South Korea.
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