On January 30, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) published the annual Citrus: World Markets and Trade report.
In Argentina, lemon/lime production is forecast to decline by 70,000 metric tons (MT) to 1.4 million MT due to poor weather during bloom. Exports are expected to drop further to 165,000 MT, continuing a four-year decline caused by adverse weather and lower fruit quality. The U.S. and EU remain key markets, but competition from South Africa in the EU has intensified. Harvest area has decreased, and some producers are switching to crops like avocados and sugarcane.
Interestingly, while production and overall exports in Argentina continue to decline, exports to the U.S. have risen over the past several years. As seen in the graph below, this increase appears to be directly correlated with the decrease in Argentina’s exports to the EU.
Due to favorable weather, lemon/lime production is forecast to increase by 8% to 3.5 million tons in Mexico. Exports are expected to grow, with the U.S. as the dominant buyer (over 90% of exports). Orange production is projected to go up from 108,000 tons to 5.1 million tons, leading to higher domestic consumption. Grapefruit production remains stable at 489,000 tons, with exports expected to rise slightly. In the EU, lemon/lime production is expected to decline 14% to 1.5 million tons, primarily due to lower yields in Spain. Imports are expected to rise due to lower domestic supply.
In Chile, lemon/lime production is forecast to increase by 3% to 197,000 tons due to favorable weather and an expanded harvest area. Mandarin and tangerine production is projected to increase by 13% to 250,000 tons, with the U.S. remaining the top export market.
To view the full report from USDA, click here.
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