USDA Publishes Several Citrus Fruit Annual Reports

Over December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published several Citrus Annual Reports. A summary of each report for Argentina, Chile, Egypt, and South Africa provided by Bryant Christie Inc. is below. Each summary provides forecasts for acreage, production, and exports.

ARGENTINA

Oranges and Tangerines:

• Orange acreage is forecast to remain unchanged for market year (MY) 2024/25 at 37,000 hectares and 26,900 hectares, respectively, due to little significant investment in recent years.
• FAS forecasts that fresh orange production volume in MY 2024/25 will decrease by 30% to 620,000 metric tons (MT) and production of tangerines will be at 200,000 MT. In MY 2023/24, orange production was estimated at 760,000 MT and tangerines were estimated at 280,000 MT.
• Orange and tangerine exports for MY 2024/25 are estimated to decrease by 30% following production declines, falling by 30% to 52,000 MT for oranges and 20,000 MT for tangerines. In MY 2023/24, orange exports are estimated at 61,600 MT, and tangerine exports are estimated at 33,600 MT. These exports are below normal levels, due to poor economic and financial conditions affecting the Argentinian citrus business. Competition from other Southern Hemisphere producers has also been fierce.
• In MY 2023/24, the EU remained Argentina’s largest orange export market, accounting for 49% of exports by volume, followed by Paraguay (26%) and Canada (4%). Notably, the U.S. is not a major export market for Argentinian oranges. For tangerines, Russia was the primary export market (33%), followed by the Philippines (20%) and Paraguay (16%).

Lemons:

• FAS predicts that lemon acreage in MY 2024/25 will decline to 41,000 hectares. Overproduction in the international fresh citrus market and stagnant demand have led to lower pricing over the past five years, resulting in fewer trees planted.
• FAS predicts that lemon production in MY 2024/25 will decline to 1.4 million metric tons (MT) due to early and persistent rainfall in the blooming season, which is expected to damage fruit quality. In MY 2023/24, lemon production declined to 1.7 million MT, with smaller than expected fruit sizes.
• Lemon exports for MY 2024/25 are predicted at 155,000 MT. In MY 2023/24, the EU remained Argentina’s largest lemon export market, accounting for 37% of exports by volume, followed by the U.S. (34%) and Russia (16%).
• In November 2024, Argentina signed the Mercosur-European Union trade agreement, which aims to enhance economic ties between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and the European Union by reducing trade barriers and increasing access. This will provide Argentina’s citrus sector with increased access to the European market.

EGYPT

Oranges:

• In MY 2024/25, orange acreage is forecasted to increase slightly to 170,000 hectares. Large orange exports over the past two years have increased profits, leading to greater planted areas.
• FAS predicts that orange production in MY 2024/25 will decrease by around 12% to 3.7 million MT. This is due to higher temperatures for longer periods at the beginning of the fruit set, as well as inflated production costs in the Nile Delta region. Orange production in MY 2023/24 is estimated at 4.2 million MT, as the year had favorable weather conditions that positively impacted fruit production.
• Orange exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to decrease by 15% to 1.9 million MT due to lower production. Egypt is expected to maintain a leading position in orange exports. FAS estimates orange exports for MY 2023/24 were at 1.75 million MT.
• In MY 2023/24, Egypt’s largest orange export market was Saudi Arabia, followed by the Netherlands, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Spain. In 2024, attacks by Houthi rebels resulted in many shipping companies rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Though this resulted in trade disruptions and price increases for exports to Asia, Egypt remained a major supplier and also increased market share in key European markets.
• In 2024, Egypt also requested that the EU lower its citrus inspection/sampling rate from 30% to 20% or 10% to mitigate shipment delays. The request will be assessed in 2025.

SOUTH AFRICA

Oranges:

• In MY 2024/25, orange acreage is forecast to increase by 1% to 44,500 hectares. FAS estimates that orange acreage in MY 2023/24 increased to 44,000 hectares due to favorable juicing prices.
• FAS predicts that orange production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 1% to 1.69 million metric tons (MT) due to normal weather and water availability for irrigation. In MY 2023/24 production is estimated at 1.68 million MT.
• Orange exports for MY 2024/25 are estimated to decrease by 1% to 1.1 million MT due to higher-than-usual processing prices. FAS estimates orange exports for MY 2023/24 were at 1.11 million MT, a 10% drop from the year prior due to adverse weather and high processing prices.
• In MY 2023/24, South Africa’s largest orange export market was the Netherlands, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Russia, China, and Portugal.

Tangerines/Mandarins:

• In MY 2024/25, mandarin and tangerine acreage is predicted to increase by 1% to 27,300 hectares, up from 2023/24’s 27,000 hectares. This follows increased demand for soft citrus over recent years.
• FAS estimates that tangerine/mandarin production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 3% to 790,000 MT due to favorable weather, up from MY 2023/24’s 770,000 MT. In MY 2023/24, South Africa faced unfavorable weather such as strong winds and flooding.
• Tangerine/mandarin exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to increase by 3% to 674,000 MT, as a response to rising global demand. Exports in MY 2023/24 are estimated to have increased by 5% from the previous year due to increased production.
• In MY 2023/24, South Africa’s largest export market was the Netherlands, followed by the UK, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and the U.S.

Lemons/Limes:

• In MY 2024/25, lemon acreage is expected to remain stable at 18,000 hectares. Oversupply has prevented increased planting.
• FAS predicts that lemon production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 7% to 780,000 MT due to normal weather, improved yields, and expanded harvested area. In MY 2023/24, lemon production is estimated at 730,000 MT.
• Lemon exports for MY 2024/25 are predicted to grow 11% to 590,000 MT due to greater amounts of exportable supply. FAS estimates lemon exports for MY 2023/24 were at 530,000 MT, due to hot and dry conditions that reduced production.
• In MY 2023/24, South Africa’s largest export market was the Netherlands, followed by, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and the U.K.

Grapefruit:

• In MY 2024/25, grapefruit acreage is predicted to decrease by 1% to 7,900 hectares from MY 2023/24’s 8,000 hectares. This reflects a steady downward trend in global grapefruit consumption.
• FAS estimates that grapefruit production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 1% to 425,000 MT due to normal weather conditions, up from MY 2023/24’s 420,000 MT.
• Grapefruit exports for MY 2024/25 will increase by 1% to 215,000 MT from 214,000 MT in MY 2023/24. This is due to some improvements in production.
• In MY 2023/24, South Africa’s largest grapefruit export market was the Netherlands, followed by China, Russia, and Japan.
• South Africa gained market access to Vietnam in March of 2024, and has recently sent a trial shipment to India. South Africa also consulted with the EU concerning Citrus Black Spot phytosanitary regulations and is now waiting on the review of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Dispute Settlement Body.

CHILE

 Oranges:

• FAS forecasts that in MY 2024/25, orange acreage will increase by 1.4% to 7,300 hectares, up from MY 2023/24’s planted area of 7,198 hectares.
• FAS estimates that orange production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 2.2% to 190,000 metric tons (MT), with high yields expected, up from 186,000 MT in MY 2023/24.
• Orange exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to increase by 3% to 103,000 MT due to increasing production. FAS estimates orange exports for MY 2023/24 were at 95,951 MT.
• In MY 2023/24, Chile’s dominant export market was the U.S., representing 95% of total exports. Nominal exports also went to Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil.

Tangerines/Mandarins:

• FAS forecasts that mandarin acreage in MY 2024/25 will increase by 4.8% to 12,700 hectares, up from 12,404 hectares.
• FAS estimates that mandarin production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 13.1% to 250,000 MT, up from 221,000 MT in MY 2023/24. This increase is expected due to the greater planted area.
• Mandarin exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to increase by 14.1% to 218,000 MT, up from 191,000 MT in MY 2023/24. The primary destinations for these exports are the United States, Canada, Spain, Mexico, and Russia.

Lemons/Limes:

• In MY 2024/25, lemon acreage is expected to increase by 4.8% to 10,400 hectares from MY 2023/24’s 9,926 hectares. Farmers have found lemons to be a profitable alternative to other crops due to higher prices and lower water requirements.
• FAS estimates that lemon production in MY 2024/25 will increase to 197,000 MT, up 2.6% from MY 2023/24’s 192,000.
• Lemon/lime exports in MY 2024/25 are expected to increase by 3.3% to 93,000 MT. In MY 2023/24, Chile’s largest lemon export market was the U.S., followed by Japan and South Korea.

 

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