Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: November 2022

On November 29, 2022, USDA released its November outlook for U.S. Agriculture Trade. Some information on imports worth noting from the report is outlined below. Read the full report here.

  • Agricultural imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $199.0 billion—$5.0 billion more than the $194.0 billion recorded for FY 2022 and $2.0 billion above the August forecast.
  • Competing economic forces result in a modest forecast for FY 2023 total U.S. agriculture imports of just 3% over FY 22. In contrast, year-over-year import growth in FYs 21 and 22 was 14 and 19 percent.  If actualized, FY 2023 would be a return to the patterns seen in the 8 years from 2013 to 2020 when annual agricultural import growth rates ranged between 0 and 7 percent.
  • The strong U.S. dollar makes foreign agricultural goods comparatively affordable for the U.S. domestic market and partially accounts for moderate upward pressure on import volumes.
  • Upward pressures on U.S. imports are expected to be tempered by a slowing economy coupled with continuing inflation, which would slow domestic demand for consumer goods as well as agricultural products.
  • The largest component of growth for FY 2023 is expected to be horticultural products.
  • The largest change within the horticultural products group from the previous forecast is a $300-million increase for fresh fruit imports due in part to ongoing droughts in key fruit-producing areas of the United States, high production costs, and an ongoing decline in citrus production.

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