On November 29, 2022, USDA released its November outlook for U.S. Agriculture Trade. Some information on imports worth noting from the report is outlined below. Read the full report here.
- Agricultural imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $199.0 billion—$5.0 billion more than the $194.0 billion recorded for FY 2022 and $2.0 billion above the August forecast.
- Competing economic forces result in a modest forecast for FY 2023 total U.S. agriculture imports of just 3% over FY 22. In contrast, year-over-year import growth in FYs 21 and 22 was 14 and 19 percent. If actualized, FY 2023 would be a return to the patterns seen in the 8 years from 2013 to 2020 when annual agricultural import growth rates ranged between 0 and 7 percent.
- The strong U.S. dollar makes foreign agricultural goods comparatively affordable for the U.S. domestic market and partially accounts for moderate upward pressure on import volumes.
- Upward pressures on U.S. imports are expected to be tempered by a slowing economy coupled with continuing inflation, which would slow domestic demand for consumer goods as well as agricultural products.
- The largest component of growth for FY 2023 is expected to be horticultural products.
- The largest change within the horticultural products group from the previous forecast is a $300-million increase for fresh fruit imports due in part to ongoing droughts in key fruit-producing areas of the United States, high production costs, and an ongoing decline in citrus production.
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