On October 12, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service published its October Forecast for the 2022-23 citrus season based on maturity test results and fruit size.
Florida citrus production is expected to be significantly lower compared to the 2021-22 season, including the following reductions:
- Florida all oranges: 32% decrease to 11 million boxes
- Florida non-Valencia orange: 40% decrease to 17 million boxes
- Florida Valencia orange: 25% decrease to 28.8 million boxes
- Florida grapefruit: 40% decrease to 2 million boxes
- Florida tangerine and tangelo: 7% decrease to 700,000 boxes
Of note, estimates were taken before Hurricane Ian hit Florida, which will further decrease Florida’s 2022-23 crop production.
Compared to Florida, the crop production estimate for California forecasts production increases in most citrus categories:
- California all oranges: 17% increase to 47.1 million boxes
- California non-Valencia oranges: 20% increase to 38 million boxes
- California Valencia oranges: 6% increase to 9.1 million boxes
- California grapefruit: 0% increase at 4.1 million boxes
- California lemons: 8% decrease to 23 million boxes
- California tangerines and mandarins: 15% increase to 20 million boxes
On October 17, the University of Florida-Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) published its Preliminary Assessment of Agricultural Losses Resulting from Hurricane Ian. Estimated losses for the citrus industry’s current marketing year range from $147 to $304 million, with variance depending on the level of fruit drop, damage to branches, and impacts of heavy precipitation and flooding.
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