USDA Citrus Crop Estimate Forecasts Significant Decline in Florida and Moderate Increase in California

On October 12, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service published its October Forecast for the 2022-23 citrus season based on maturity test results and fruit size.

Florida citrus production is expected to be significantly lower compared to the 2021-22 season, including the following reductions:

  • Florida all oranges: 32% decrease to 11 million boxes
  • Florida non-Valencia orange: 40% decrease to 17 million boxes
  • Florida Valencia orange: 25% decrease to 28.8 million boxes
  • Florida grapefruit: 40% decrease to 2 million boxes
  • Florida tangerine and tangelo: 7% decrease to 700,000 boxes

Of note, estimates were taken before Hurricane Ian hit Florida, which will further decrease Florida’s 2022-23 crop production.

Compared to Florida, the crop production estimate for California forecasts production increases in most citrus categories:

  • California all oranges: 17% increase to 47.1 million boxes
  • California non-Valencia oranges: 20% increase to 38 million boxes
  • California Valencia oranges: 6% increase to 9.1 million boxes
  • California grapefruit: 0% increase at 4.1 million boxes
  • California lemons: 8% decrease to 23 million boxes
  • California tangerines and mandarins: 15% increase to 20 million boxes

On October 17, the University of Florida-Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) published its Preliminary Assessment of Agricultural Losses Resulting from Hurricane Ian. Estimated losses for the citrus industry’s current marketing year range from $147 to $304 million, with variance depending on the level of fruit drop, damage to branches, and impacts of heavy precipitation and flooding.


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