First Seasonal Outlook from WeatherAg

By WeatherAg Chief Meteorologist Scott Borgioli

The 2020-21 rainfall year (July 1-June 30) ended within the top 3-5 driest years since 1935 across the valley. Now dissipated, La Nina peaked in the low end “moderate” category, but mostly remained at a “weak” strength or borderline weak/moderate. Historically, weak La Nina’s are associated with below average precipitation across California whereas moderate strength La Nina’s typically result in above average precipitation from about Sacramento northward with below average to the south. You’ve all seen the reports and numbers, so I’ll move along here. Generally speaking, a La Nina has no effect on temperatures (locally).

Prospects of another La Nina:

La Nina is expected to form again across key portions of the Equatorial Pacific. This is not all that unusual. In fact, we have a meteorological term to describe it: “double-dip La Nina.” I’ve been monitoring this closely and watching sea surface temperature trends over the Equatorial Pacific. Overall, probabilities of another La Nina are nearly at 80%:

For the full seasonal outlook please click here.

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